UFC 208

UFC 208: Holm Vs. De Randamie Breakdown

UFC 208: Holm Vs. De Randamie Breakdown

The official FloCombat breakdown of UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie this Saturday night in Brooklyn, New York.

Feb 10, 2017 by Duane Finley
UFC 208: Holm Vs. De Randamie Breakdown

Holly Holm (10-2)

Staple info:
  • Height: 5'8" Age: 35 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 70"
  • Last Fight: Decision loss / Valentina Shevchenko (7-23-16)
  • Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Excellent
Supplemental info: + Former UFC Bantamweight Champion
+ Pro Boxing Experience (33-2-3)
^ Multiple Boxing Titles
+ Amateur Kickboxing Accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 5 2nd round finishes
+ Disciplined footwork & movement
^ Excellent distance management
+ Active & accurate cross
+ Hard left body & head kicks
+ Sometimes lunges on strikes
^ Counter availabilities
+ Deceptively strong in clinch
^ Works well off over & under-hooks
+ Consistent round winner
- Struggles from bottom

Germaine De Randamie (6-3)

Staple info:
  • Height: 5'9" Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 72.5"
  • Last Fight: KO win / Anna Elmose (5-8-16)
  • Camp: Van Buel Sports (Netherlands)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Good
Supplemental info: + 10x Muay Thai World Champion
+ Various Regional Muay Thai Titles
^ 46-0 as a Pro with 30 KO's
+ Undefeated as an Amateur
+ 3 KO victories
+ 2 first round finishes
+ Excellent footwork
^ Seldom throws self out of position
+ Accurate L. hook--R. Cross
^ Coming forward & off the counter
+ Dangerous kicking acumen
^ Variates attack sides & levels
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Steers & strikes with knees
+ Improved wrestling
- Struggles from the bottom
Summary: The main event in Brooklyn features the UFC's debut of a female featherweight division as Holly Holm and Germaine De Randamie will decide whose name will hit the history books first.

A fighter who was long-awaited to make her appearance in the UFC, Holly Holm took the MMA world by storm when she scored a knockout over Ronda Rousey back at UFC 193 to earn the bantamweight strap. Since then, the Jackson-Wink product has been on a dry spell, dropping her last two fights in succession. Not one to back down from a challenge, Holm will step back into the main stage spotlight to take on another high-level striker.

Coined 'the female Anderson Silva' early on in her MMA career, Germaine De Randamie comes into the UFC as one of the most accoladed Muay Thai fighters next to Valentina Shevchenko. Boasting an impressive pro record of 46-0 with 30 wins by way of knockout, the Dutch fighter would jump right into the thick of things as she took on veteran fighters in the Strikeforce organization. Taking the knocks and knowledge that strikers often face when trying to translate their game, De Randamie will now get a chance to showcase her skills and earn her first title in MMA.

In a fight that should primarily contest standing on paper, we have an intriguing matchup of two skilled-strikers who have two different styles. More of a stick-and-move stylist, Holm demonstrates excellent footwork and distance managements as she plays just outside of range. Utilizing her lateral movement until finding an opening to her liking, Holm will engage in strafing runs, throwing a variety of pre-programmed combinations.

Although Holm's racehorse-like efficiency and discipline are impressive, she can be a bit predictable in the plays that she runs. A consistency of patterns that she carried over from boxing, Holm will usually circle to her left to reset, and move to her right when attempting to achieve attack angles. In resetting/circling to the left, Holly gets her opposition to follow her as she will then quickly strike and exit off to an angle.

null
Nov 15, 2015; Melbourne, Australia; Ronda Rousey (red gloves) competes against Holly Holm (blue gloves) during UFC 193 at Etihad Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
When doing so, Holm does a good job of getting her head offline as she throws her patent cross down the center as I feel that will serve her well in this fight. In facing a more traditional Muay Thai striker like Germaine De Randamie, abusing the centerline with straight punches may be her best bet as that can often disrupt the setting process of various tools in the Thai striking system(as I referred to this in my Masvidal-Cerrone breakdown).

Despite De Randamie being undefeated in Muay Thai, the Dutch fighter would come close to defeat when Brenda Duijdeveld used straight punches to disrupt an oncoming De Randamie. However, not only will Holm have to be persistently on point to execute and or dissuade De Randamie, but she will also need to mind how much she exchanges with her----and how she exits those exchanges.

Holm, who will sometimes lunge with low-hands when attacking, also tends to exit exchanges unprotected on her left side. Upon further film study, I found that an unprotected head was a common theme for Holly when exiting and entering exchanges dating all the way back to her first fight with Ann Sophie Mathis. Though Holm came back to defeat Mathis later in her career, we would see Holly's point scoring style personified as she edged out rounds and avoided exchanges.

Although Holm's sensibilities initially translated well to MMA(especially when it came to shutting down grapplers who wanted to get her down), her patterns would be sniffed out steadily when pitted against more competent strikers.

We saw a less accoladed striker in Raquel Pennington eventually pick up on Holly's tendencies, as Raquel was able to land counter right hands with regularity by the third round. And in my upset call of last Summer, we saw Valentina Shevchenko land check right hooks with regularity as she exploited the openings mentioned above. For that reason, I feel that De Randamie's right cross and high kick will be the key strikes to watch out for in this fight.

Like many high-level Muay Thai strikers, De Randamie seldom throws herself out of position when stalking down her prey. Utilizing her jab much more in recent years, De Randamie puts together her punches nicely as she throws an accurate cross from her power side. Intelligently reading her opposition's exits and retreats, De Randamie will corral said range with devastating head kicks that she uses to punctuate her combinations.

null
Mar 14, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Larissa Pacheco (red) fights Germaine de Randamie (blue) in the womens bantamweight bout during UFC 185 at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
If Holm cannot establish her rhythm and disrupt De Randamie's early, then she may be forced to make similarly uncomfortable moves as we saw in her last fight if the former champ means to maintain her round-winning style. Although I feel this would be a great fight for Holm to unveil any potential offensive wrestling she has in her back pocket, I also feel that opportunities will be few and far between as I suspect Holm will avoid clinching with the Muay Thai champion.

Even though Holm surprised us all with her counter clinch abilities against Rousey, her game his mainly defensive as I am not sure her technics translate well against Thai fighters. Despite working well with under-hooks or over-hooks, Holm's framing style primarily protects her hips from takedowns as well as the occasional knee disruption(when framing forearms off of over-hooks).

The potential problem with that approach against a fighter like De Randamie is not only can she switch off to elbows up high when being disrupted down low, but she also operates best from an over-under clinch position, a position that is easily attainable from Holm's preferred clinch style. Furthermore, De Randamie will utilize an awkward but effective variation of the Thai clinch from here.

Instead of connecting her hands in a traditional Thai plum around the back of her opponent's head, De Randamie will utilize a palm-to-palm grip variation off the over-under position as she connects her hands high around the back of her opposition's head and neck. Not only does this allow De Randamie to steer her counterpart, but it also allows her to strike them with impunity as we saw this on full display against Julie Kedzie.

However, if this fight does find its way to the floor, the woman who ends up in top position will likely be the one who has the edge given both of their past struggles from the bottom. With the oddsmakers agreeing that this is a close fight, I would avoid any plays heavily on either fighter here.

Although I could see an on point Holly Holm edging out scorecards with her volume, I feel that De Randamie will find a home for her check hooks and counter-crosses, which I believe will ultimately open up a corralling head kick finish. On the flip side, Holm could prove many of us wrong as she finds herself in a position that is unprecedented--being right in the middle of three devastating defeats, or forever a place amongst history's elite.

Official Pick: De Randamie - Inside the distance

Anderson Silva (33-8-1)

Staple info:
  • Height: 6'2" Age: 41 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 77.5"
  • Last Fight: Decision loss / Daniel Cormier (7-9-16)
  • Camp: X-Gym (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info: + Former UFC Middleweight Champion
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 22 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 18 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Superb offensive & defensive instinct
^ Deceptive setups & counter strikes
+ Precise striker
^ Intercepts & anticipates
- Heavily reliant on head movement
+ Strong clinch / Thai clinch
^ Deadly knees / solid base
+ Good guard retentions & Triangle chokes
+/-Willingness to fight from back
+/-7-0-1 against UFC Southpaws

Derek Brunson (16-4)

Staple info:
  • Height: 6'1" Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 78"
  • Last Fight: TKO loss / Robert Whitaker (11-26-16)
  • Camp: Brunson's MMA (North Carolina)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info: + 3x Div. 2 All-American Wrestler
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ BJJ Blue Belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 3 Submission wins
+ 12 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Dangerous left head kicks & crosses
+ Subtle shuffle-step entries
^ Closes distance & sets up strikes
+ Strong pressure against fence
^ Strikes well of the breaks
+ Good power-double takedown
+ Solid top pressure
- Sometimes throws self out of position
^ Counter availabilities
+/-3-1 against UFC Southpaws
Summary: The co-main event of UFC 208 features a battle of Top-10 middleweights as Anderson Silva squares off with Derek Brunson.

A legend who needs no introduction, Anderson Silva has done just about everything one can do to have a legendary career in MMA. Now angling for a rematch with the current champion, Michael Bisping, Silva will first need to take care of the young lion put before him.

One of the division's dark horses who was on a five-fight winning streak until his last fight, Derek Brunson was seeking desperately to get back on the horse as he jumped at this opportunity. With the biggest matchup of his career now ahead of him, Brunson will look to seize the moment and not be overtaken by it as he takes on a former idol.

Starting off on the feet, Silva should have the clear on-paper edge standing, but Brunson is not all that far behind as the former All-American poses some threats of his own. Subtly stalking as he uses a shuffle-step variation to come forward, Brunson will put himself in prime position to land shots from the power side of his southpaw stance.

Although he is known for his devastating left high kick, I feel that Brunson's left cross will serve him well in this fight. An accurate strike in his repertoire, Derek could find success against a fighter who is reliant on his reaction times like Anderson Silva is.

From the psychological warfare of low-handed taunts to his accurate and intercepting counter strikes, Anderson Silva has made his money by confidently coordinating high-risk situations.

null
Jul 9, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Anderson Silva (blue gloves) punches Daniel Cormier (red gloves) during UFC 200 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joshua Dahl-USA TODAY Sports
Despite this style working well for Silva throughout the majority of his career, speed is often the first thing to go amongst aging fighters as the legend could pay for leaning on those attributes too heavily. However, I do feel that the outline of this striking matchup favors the former champion.

Even though selling out on his strikes could pay off big for Brunson, the All-American has a tendency to throw himself out of position when engaging his opposition as we saw it eventually catch up with him once again in his last fight. Couple that with the fact that he is facing arguably the best counter striker this game has seen, a lapse in technique or discipline could cost Brunson dearly.

Now, do not jump to conclusions from that last sentence as I concede that Silva's prime left the train station a long time ago. That said, even though we are now looking a different fighter, I still feel that Silva has enough sharpness and self belief left in the tank. In fact, if Brunson gets careless, I could see Silva hitting check hooks and counters early and often, even at this advanced stage of his career.

Although Brunson could conceivably outwork Silva(as the former champion's volume has been questionable at times), I believe that even a disciplined Brunson may be at the mercy of splitting jabs and head kick setups. Not only is Silva the better on paper striker, but I also think he does better in southpaw versus southpaw matchups.

Regardless of his chances on the feet, I feel that Brunson's best bet will be by taking this fight to the floor. Even though Brunson does not typically counter with strikes, he is not shy about using a reactive shot to disrupt his opponent's forward pressure. Despite not always having the cleanest entries, Brunson will use his initial grasps to push his opposition to the fence or re-wrestle in for a better takedown.

If he can ground the Silva, then we could see Brunson possibly wear the legend down as he possesses excellent top pressure once he gets going. However, if Brunson fails to ground the former champion on his initial attempts, then we may see the All-American forced to tangle inside of Silva's clinch.

null
Nov 27, 2016; Melbourne, Australia; Robert Whittaker (red gloves) competes against Derek Brunson (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Rod Laver Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
Even if this once revered area has become more tourist friendly in recent years, Silva still carries the power to punctuate as he also possesses much more depth to his toolkit. That said, Brunson is one of the most potent strikers in the sport when it comes to delivering blows off of the break as I feel that will be his best shot at stopping the legend.

Although Brunson has the skills to pass, stop, or submit Silva on paper, Silva has shown to be an effective stifler despite his questionable choices on the floor. Couple that with past fighter's propensities to let Silva off the hook(due to what is arguably subconscious respect), Brunson could get caught cruising, especially if he gets in his head or loses focus after failing to take out his opponent early.

Another point worth noting is that Silva seldom slows down or tires, even in his most questionable and or poor performances. Brunson, on the other hand, has a propensity to slightly slow and labor come the third round in both victory and defeat. Considering that the third round has traditionally been one of Silva's strongest, things could get interesting come the final frame, even if Brunson is up two.

With this being a fight where I initially came in one way only to leave leaning the other, I suggest strong caution in plays as I feel this is a loaded matchup. Though I agree with the oddsmakers in slightly favoring Brunson as he arguably has more paths to victory, there are too many intangibles at play for me to back him confidently here.

Perhaps if Brunson had a full training camp at Jackson-Wink MMA for this fight(as well as a full recovery time from his last one), then I could feel better about his chances. Call it optimism or wishful thinking if you must, but I ultimately see this battle in Brooklyn playing out like "Big Nog's" victory over Brendan Schaub in Brazil.

Official Pick: Silva - Inside the distance

Ronaldo Souza (23-4-1)

Staple info:
  • Height: 6'0" Age: 37 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 74"
  • Last Fight: TKO win / Vitor Belfort (5-14-16)
  • Camp: X-Gym (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Good
Supplemental info: + Former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion
+ BJJ & ADCC World Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ & Judo
+ 6 KO victories
+ 13 Submission wins
+ 16 first round finishes
+ Heavy right hand
^ Counters well
+ Improved footwork
+ Moves head well
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Solid takedown ability
+ Dangerous in transition
^ Active submissions & back takes
+ Superb ground control
- Subject to activity lulls

Tim Boetsch (20-10)

Staple info:
  • Height: 5'11" Age: 36 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 74"
  • Last Fight: KO win / Rafael Natal (11-12-16)
  • Camp:Team Irish (Maine)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info: + NCAA Div. 1 Wrestler (LHU)
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ 4x Wrestling State Champion
+ 12 KO victories
+ 3 Submission wins
+ 8 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Dangerous dirty boxer
+ Underrated grappling
+ Solid top game
^ Devastating ground striker
- Low standing guard
^ Counter availabilities
- Dropped/stunned in last 3/6 fights
- Struggles from the bottom
Summary: In an interesting middleweight fight, number three ranked Ronaldo Souza takes on number thirteen ranked Tim Boetsch.

A long-hailed contender for the middleweight crown, Ronaldo Souza could have arguably had his shot if not for a couple of close scorecards back at UFC 194. Coming off of a win over Vitor Belfort last summer, Souza will look to seize another main card stage as he seeks to cement his case for a title shot.

Standing in the Brazilian's way is one of the grittiest comeback fighters to ever grace the Octagon as Tim Boetsch attempts to score another upset win. As one of the bigger underdogs on the card, Boetsch has proven time-and-time again that he can always be down, but never be out. Looking to keep his current winning streak alive, Boetsch will try and derail one of the division's most dangerous contenders.

A world-renown Brazilian Jiu-jitsu competitor who found success outside of the Gi in the ADCC, Ronaldo Souza would eventually work his way into the MMA scene. Despite his strength being in BJJ, Souza would seemingly make strides in his wrestling and striking game while fighting under the Strikeforce banner.

null
May 14, 2016; Curitiba, Brazil; Ronaldo Souza (red, top) throws punches down on Vitor Belfort (blue) during UFC Fight Night at Arena Atletico Paranaense. Mandatory Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports
Although I give Boetsch and his looming power a slight edge standing, Souza is not far behind as he will present some threats of his own. Steadily stalking his opposition, Souza will utilize feints to bait opponents into exchanging with him. Once able to get a bite, Souza will often unleash his patent counter cross or change his level for a shot. However, the Brazilian will have to be careful as Boetsch wields a counter right hand of his own that he likes to set up.

Don't let Boetsch's physique fool you as he can move deceptively well. Electing to stay light on his feet when playing at a distance, Boetsch has no problem planting himself in the pocket to deliver destructive shots. Favoring to work himself into clinch spaces, Boetsch is an effective dirty boxer as he will unleash uppercuts with impunity.

Despite Souza not usually stagnating in clinch space, the Brazilian will still need to mind his exits as striking off of the break will likely be Boetsch's best chance of closing the show.

Even though Boetsch can hold his own at a distance, he tends to play along the outside when pressured, a place where Souza generally scores his takedowns. Anytime the Brazilian can corral his opposition in between the inner-black Octagon lines and cage, Souza will typically set up a shot as he has a few variations to his double-leg.

Stepping up his wrestling game since entering MMA, Souza has made notable upgrades to his shot entries and takedown chains. Should Souza get Boetsch to the ground, you likely do not need me to tell you who that scenario favors(especially if the Brazilian is the one on top).

Although Boetsch is an underrated grappler, he is most effective when topside as there seems to be a skill disparity in his bottom game. However, should Boetsch find himself on top, he has shown the ground striking that can sway any fight's momentum. That said, I feel those opportunities are too few and far between as I see Souza asserting himself with a submission win here.

Official Pick: Souza - Inside the distance

Glover Teixeira (25-5)

Staple info:
  • Height: 6'2" Age: 37 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 76"
  • Last Fight: KO loss / Anthony Johnson (8-20-16)
  • Camp: Teixeira MMA (Danbury, CT)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info: + Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 16 KO victories
+ 17 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission victories
+ KO Power
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Accurate R. hand--L. Hook
+ Good economy of movement
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Works well off of single-legs
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Improved get-up urgency
^ Uses under-hooks or turtles out
- Struggles when pressured against fence

Jared Cannonier (9-1)

Staple info:
  • Height: 6'3" Age: 32 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 77"
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Ion Cutelaba
  • Camp: Gracie Barra Alaska (Alaska)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info: + Regional MMA Titles
+ 2-0 as an Amateur
+ 5 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 6 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Good footwork
^ Shifts stances & takes angles
+ Solid combination striker
^ Variates attacks & levels
+ Hard body kicks
- Hands tend to lower
- 40% takedown defense
+ Shows improved get-ups/scrambles
+ Competent guard & ground game
Summary: In a fun light-heavyweight matchup, Glover Teixeira meets Jared Cannonier.

Despite coming off a crushing defeat to Anthony Johnson in August of last year, Glover Teixeira had some solid momentum going for himself prior as he put together three consecutive stoppage victories. Looking to recreate that resurgence, Teixeira will first have to stop the division's new blood from broaching his spot.

An out of nowhere contender who hails from the middle of nowhere, Jared Cannonier's seriousness shows in the commitment that he puts into this sport. With his skills on full display in his last fight with Ion Cutelaba, Cannonier will now test himself against what is by far the biggest name of his young career as he takes on the former Brazilian title challenger.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two fighters who look for the finish----but in different ways. A more traditional stalker, Teixeira will steadily come forward as he looks to ply pressure, pushing his opponent back and forcing them to answer. Often starting the party with a lead right hand, the Brazilian will bait his opposition into exchanging as he keeps his cleanup-hitting left hook at the ready.

Although Teixeira will seldom throw himself out of position, it is when throwing his lead cross where the Brazilian tends to lean forward and expose himself to uppercuts and left hands. Although these may be small openings I am referring to, leading off with your power hand is a tactic where the risk only increases with age as it is timing based.

null
Apr 16, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Rashad Evans (blue gloves) fights Glover Texeira (red gloves) in thelight heavyweight bout (bout 11) during UFC Fight Night at Amalie Arena. Glover Texeira won. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Despite Cannonier having a hard right hand and uppercut to account for himself, I feel that his left hand may be the weapon to watch for in this fight. With Teixeira having a tendency to lead with his right, left hooks are often his common culprit in exchanges as he tends to get clipped with checks or collisions(as seen in his fights with Jones, Bader, and to an extent, Johnson).

Usually shifting his stance pre or post-striking stanza, Cannonier can also do so mid-combination ala TJ Dillashaw. Though the heavyweight fighter is a long way from the former bantamweight champion, Cannonier's quickness and athleticism are without a doubt a strong factor in his footwork. Furthermore, Cannonier shows an intelligence and depth of technique that you would not expect based on his staple information.

Although Cannonier's best chances of closing the show are on the feet, I could see things potentially going south for him should he go too much to his body kicks. Despite Cannonier's capability of throwing hard teeps and Thai kicks with effect, I believe that Teixeira is more capable of catching those kicks and turning them into takedowns, as the Brazilian has shown a knack to do so in his fights.

Cannonier will also need to mind playing along the outside as Teixiera tends to push for takedowns whenever he can get his opponents to the fence. Whether he is shooting traditional double-legs or running his chains off of his favored head-outside single, Teixeira should be more than able to take Cannonier down on paper as the Alaskan-based fighter has failed to defend practically every takedown thrown his way inside of the Octagon.

That said, Cannonier has made measurable efforts in his wrestling improvements as it shows through in his ability to get up. Despite retaining guard a bit too much for my liking in MMA, Cannonier demonstrated that he could create space and scrambles when necessary as he would either push off the hips or turtle up-and-out of trouble spots. However, Cannonier may not get away with these techniques against Teixeira as easily as he did with Ion Cutelaba, a fighter who has a much different style.

As we saw in Teixeira's fight with Ovince Saint Preux, the Brazilian can close the show if you turtle-out or expose your back. A smooth pressure passer, Teixeira is a master chef when it comes to cooking his opposition underneath him. Methodically(and brutally) using ground strikes, Teixeira adds fuel to the fire as he force-feeds his opponents into head & arm chokes if they turn into him, or rear-naked-chokes if they turn way.

With Teixeira coming off of a loss and facing another young lion, I expect his intentions to play out very similarly to his fight with Ovince Saint Preux. Given Cannonier's past struggles in defending shots, I expect Teixeira to test him by attempting to exploit these holes before they are shored up. Should Cannonier keep this standing, then we could see Teixeira's ticket stamped as this could very well turn into the "changing of the guard" show.

Ultimately, I'll be siding with what I see on paper as I feel the Brazilian has enough fight left in him to quell this rising contender with a submission stoppage.

Official Pick: Teixeira - Inside the distance

Dustin Poirier (20-5)

Staple info:
  • Height: 5'9" Age: 28 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73"
  • Last Fight: KO loss / Michael Johnson (9-17-16)
  • Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info: + Regional MMA Titles
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 12 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Improved boxing
^ Good cage-cutting & angles
^ Shifts & strikes smoothly
+ Accurate left cross
^ Dangerous off of the counter
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Solid submissions & scrambling
+/-Aggressive in exchanges
+/-2-2 against UFC southpaws

Jim Miller (28-8)

Staple info:
  • Height: 5'8" Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 75.5"
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Thiago Alves (11-12-16)
  • Camp: Miller Bros. MMA (New Jersey)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info: + Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 4 KO victories
+ 14 Submission wins
+ 10 first round finishes
+ Aggressive pace & pressure
+ Accurate L hand--R. Hook
+ Dangerous short elbows
+ Solid leg / inside leg kicks
+ Underrated takedown game
+ Deadly submissions in transit
+/-Willingness to fight from bottom
^ Active & attacking guard
- Gas tank bares watching
+/-1-5 against UFC southpaws
Summary: Kicking starting the main card in Brooklyn is a fantastic lightweight matchup as Dustin Poirier meets Jim Miller.

A fast-rising contender at 155-pounds, Dustin Poirier's road to title contention hit a speedbump last September as he got caught by Michael Johnson under the main event spotlight. Looking to get back on track with a win, Poirier will first have to face one the division's staples.

A fan favorite for anyone who has laid eyes on this sport, Jim Miller embodies the grit and spirit that you want to see in a fighter. Struggling to find consistency in the past few years, Miller would mount a late-career resurgence last summer after discovering and treating a medical condition that he was not even aware he had.

Now, coming off a catchweight victory over Thiago Alves, Jim Miller will return to New York as he attempts to launch himself back to his longtime home of the lightweight Top-10.

Although I do not disagree with the oddsmakers making Dustin Poirier the favored fighter, I do not feel that this fight is as certain as the 4-to-1 odds would suggest. And though my skewed optimism may be a byproduct of my unabashed fandom for Miller, I still feel there will be some things to look out for from both men as I will do my best to keep my analysis fair and factually based as per usual.

In a battle that I feel will contest mostly on the feet, the key intangible for this fight will be the matchup of two southpaw strikers. As a southpaw myself, I tend to expand passionately on this subject as it is often an overlooked aspect from both fans and fighters alike.

Although southpaws can pose problems for orthodox fighters due to the lack of looks and repetitions found in most gyms, the same can be said about southpaws when faced with another lefty in front of them. Despite the traditional offensive openings that this stance pairing can make available, it is the defensive-tendencies that usually suffer as the different distances and angles make counter shots more potent and hard to read.

null
Jun 4, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Bobby Green (blue) fights Dustin Poirier (red) during UFC 199 at The Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
For this reason, the most skilled striker does not always win in a battle of southpaws, as it usually comes down to which fighter is more organically comfortable in this styles match. As the statistics above would suggest, I would give Poirier the slight edge when it comes to striking with southpaws. Even though numbers do not always tell the tale, I feel that Poirier carries a style that may translate better in this type of matchup.

Along with his move up in weight, Poirier has also moved his residence to Florida to become a full-time member of American Top Team. In the subsequent years, Poirier has made many upgrades to his game as I feel his boxing and footwork has improved immensely. Demonstrating an excellent awareness of angles, Poirier will now shift his stances as he sets up or adjusts to his opponent accordingly.

Often doubling up on his left hand, Poirier will disguise his approach as he smoothly shifts to orthodox. From here, Poirier will use this brief element of surprise to unleash right hands over the top, or even leg kicks. Utilizing this style of shifting to create attack angles, Poirier has also shown to sit down on his punches more effectively as he has given three-fighters their first stoppage losses since moving to lightweight.

However, firepower is often a two-way street as Poirier's aggression has often taught him this lesson on multiple occasions. And despite the fact that his head movement has improved since moving to American Top Team, the Louisiana native still has a tendency to revert to a shell-defense. Although that type of guard is not necessarily a bad thing, Poirier will be facing a fighter whose offense is tailored to this style of defense.

Whether he is throwing uppercuts, body shots, or crosses down the center, Miller thrives when his opponents shell up on him. In both of his battles with Joe Lauzon, we saw Jim abuse the inside angle to land counter lefts and upward elbows anytime Joe shelled-up. Given the willingness to trade that Poirier tends to fall prey to, I would not be surprised to see Miller start slicing like he is Bill the Butcher from Gangs of New York whenever he gets a chance to. That said, I believe that Miller's best chances reside on the mat. Even though I feel Poirier's ground game and wrestling is often underrated, Miller is legitimate Brazilian Jiu-jitsu black belt whose submission game translates well to the cage. Like a kid in a candy store, Jim Miller cannot help himself whenever a limb becomes available. Despite Miller's submission thirst often getting him into trouble, I believe that this is the type of fight where Jim's desperate attempts will not necessarily hurt him.

Exercising his underrated ground skills, Dustin Poirier will often bait submission attempts to open up his opposition and allow himself to advance. Although he has yet to be submitted soberly from the inside the guard, Poirier will be playing with fire anytime he allows Miller to get a catch in transit. However, given that the ground is Miller's most potent path to victory, I doubt that Poirier will employ that gameplan here.

As a fan who seriously considers Jim Miller amongst his Top-5 favorite MMA fighters of all-time, I will be rooting for him to do well without a shadow of a doubt. But as an analyst, my unbiased pick is Poirier as I see his speed being the big difference maker in a fight full of potential fireworks.



Official Pick: Poirier - Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

  • Muhammad def. Brown
  • Reis def. Sasaki
  • Makhachev def. Lentz
  • Brooks def. McCall
  • Tybura def. Willis
  • Laflare def. Carneiro
  • Glenn def. Nover
For my complete works of past UFC breakdowns and analysis visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned to FloCombat.com