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Summary: The main event for UFC 209 is a rematch for the welterweight title as Tyron Woodley defends his belt against Stephen Thompson. 

An inspiring success story from the streets of Ferguson, Tyron Woodley has carried over his aptitude and intelligence as an All-American wrestler into MMA. Fighting his way to the top of the food chain, Woodley will once again look to prove his doubters wrong. 

Attempting to capstone a story of his own, Stephen Thompson will seek to secure his martial arts legacy after coming up short last November. Now, granted another chance to accomplish his dream, the pressure to deliver has never been higher for the former kickboxing world champion. 

In their first meeting, the action that took place highlighted the on-paper advantages that many, including myself, thought that both men had over one another. We saw the takedown threats and grappling control from Woodley in the first round, as well as the champion's vaunted power that came to fruition in the fourth. 

As for Thompson, we saw the well-versed nature of his multi-directional offense steadily take its course as his superior work rate would bank him rounds. With both men letting the other back into the fight through their classic tropes of low-handed guards or suspect gas tanks, this rematch----like most, will hinge on who can make the better adjustments. Although my picks may sometimes speak louder than my summaries, I will dive into the possible paths of both men based on their previous fight, as well as their in-cage sensibilities. 

Starting off standing, we may see the drastic adjustments come from Thompson as I suspect he may fight more from the southpaw stance. In their last fight, Thompson would primarily strike from the orthodox stance as he repeatedly look to pressure and crowd, a principle that served Rory MacDonald well in his win over Woodley. Though Thompson would find success with stalking in this fashion, we also saw that he would become more hittable when exiting exchanges from the orthodox stance as it would put him deeper inside the pocket, and closer to Woodley's right hand. 

Similar to Freddie Roach's approach with a younger Manny Pacquiao, switching up to southpaw can be used to quell right-hand hittability based on the larger range of distance and sight that the open-stance layout presents. I also feel that this stance may suit Thompson better to the potential adjustments Woodley may make. In my opinion, Woodley will likely look to throw more leg kicks on the feet as well as make his wrestling more of a presence overall. Not only were those two things that many forecasted the champion doing in his last outing, but he was also effective whenever executing said techniques against Thompson. 

Given that the takedown threats from Thompson are among the least of his worries, it will be interesting to see if Woodley exercises his right to kick down low. Regardless of that aspect, I still feel that the champion's best chances for victory may lie within the counter shot. As stated in my breakdown for their UFC 205 bout, Woodley may have the smaller arsenal on paper, but he does a deceptively good job of funneling his opposition into his game in regards to countering. Going all the way back to his fight with Nate Marquardt, Woodley has shown the ability to counter effectively as this was a key in his victories over Josh Koscheck and Kelvin Gastelum as well. 

Though the champion was able to stun Thompson stepping forward in this last fight, he was caught in space more often than not when being the aggressor. Despite not producing the ideal results of a knockdown(outside of the fourth round), Woodley was able to counter Thompson effectively throughout the contest as I see the fighter who can successfully feint and draw being the successor in exchanges. Should Thompson elect the previously mentioned southpaw stance, he could negate many of the lanes and angles needed for the potential leg kicks, crosses, and takedowns coming his way. 

Even though Woodley's preferred power-double takedown works well against either stance, it still requires a level of commitment from his counterpart to work, making range and tactics all the more important. With footwork often being the quiet killer in higher-level MMA, Thompson's southpaw stance could also help open things up offensively as we saw in his fights with Rory MacDonald and Johny Hendricks. 

Facing one of the most technically-sound welterweight strikers in Rory MacDonald, we saw Thompson take away MacDonald's jab using superb outside-foot-awareness. Not only does Thompson's Karate base allow him to operate from unique angles effectively, but his boxing influence ties everything together as we saw this come to fruition against his Canadian counterpart. Keeping his lead-foot just outside of his opponent's lead-foot, Thompson was able to shut down the traditional striking lanes, leaving MacDonald looking hesitant. 

Albeit a small detail, it was an impressive one as Thompson was able to consistently set or re-place his foot to that position throughout the entire 25-minutes. With Thompson's foot placement giving him inherent edges in exchanges, his wide-array of attack angles and options could start to take shape if Woodley fails to stifle him early. 

Even though Johny Hendricks is a southpaw, I feel that the footwork Thompson used in that fight also holds keys to how he can evade Woodley's right hand. When operating out of the southpaw stance, Thompson would utilize a shift referred to in traditional martial arts as "opening the gate." Swinging his lead foot back at a 45-degree angle, Thompson will slip out of harm's way as he shifts to an orthodox stance. From here, Thompson is well in-line to land a right cross of his own as this angle usually allows him to see into his opponent's ear. 

If Thompson was able to successfully do this through the danger of Hendrick's power side, then we may see him do similar to Woodley, as this style would force the champ to fight from his weak side. Regardless of any perceived or on-paper advantages, Woodley will still hold the trump cards of power and grappling prowess in his back pocket. As Woodley's wrestling credentials would suggest, he is capable of grounding almost anyone on the UFC's roster. 

That said, we have seldom seen Woodley rely on it in some time as he has only recorded 6-official takedown attempts in his four-year UFC tenure. Though this can be accredited this to your usual wrestler turned striker argument, I believe that it may have to do more with output management. Apart from his bout with Carlos Condit, Woodley has mainly used his wrestling in the UFC to combat arduous or unfavorable fight-conditions. 

Despite being near impossible to score on, Tyron can also be inactive inside of the clinch when it comes to striking or wrestling. Aside from finishing off an already hurt Dong Hyun Kim and his brief burst at the end of Round 1 in his last fight, Woodley has seemingly used ground stanzas in a stalling fashion rather than a means for advancement. 

Favoring an all-the-way-in type of pressure from inside the guard(where he will sometimes utilize his shoulder), seldom will you see Woodley posture up for the devastating ground strikes that you would expect from someone with his skill-sets. Woodley also attempts a majority of his takedowns against the cage, which seems like a good thing considering that Thompson tends to play inside of those spaces. However, I feel that Thompson likes to hang out near the fence when facing wrestlers for strategic purposes. 

If his plan-A of playing Matador does not work out, then Thompson shows to use the cage to assist his already strong balance when defending shots(as we saw against Johny Hendricks). Should Woodley fail against the fence, the champion will need to be careful exiting the clinch as Thompson consistently strikes off breaks. But if Woodley is successful in grounding Thompson, then I expect him to be more aggressive in exploring his grappling and ground edges. 

Even though Thompson has an underrated get-up game, his lone attempt last fight to create space cost him a cut to his nose. However, If Woodley cannot pave a substantial path on the ground that produces damage or momentum swings, then I see an on-paper advantage quickly turning into diminishing returns given the gas tank displayed from the champion in previous affairs. 

Now, I do not mean to discount or discredit Woodley with that statement as he is a hard-working athlete that puts in a ton of sacrifice for his craft. That said, there are a lot of scientific facts and sample sizes to pull from that will tell you that muscles need fuel, and Woodley is no exception with his build. Despite his cardio holding up in the last contest, Woodley's pace and statistical output consistently lowered each round apart from the fourth, where he almost got the finish. Often fighting in bursts, Woodley will revert to circling on the outside should he not make a strong impact in the opening frame. 

Using his previously mentioned clinch game or an occasional right-handed explosion, Woodley has shown that he can stall or scare off his opposition when necessary. But against a rhythm fighter who is fairly confident with his reads, the champion may find himself fighting from behind in this five-rounder should he fail to find the knockout blow.

Official Pick: Thompson - Inside the distance

Summary: The co-main event for UFC 209 is an interim title tilt as the division's top two warlords will decide who will reign in Conor McGregor's stead. 

Long-hailed the number-one contender to the lightweight crown, Khabib Nurmagomedov's opportunities for gold have been cut short due to injury. Now, with the layoff and ring-rust questions behind him, Nurmagomedov will look to accomplish what he originally came to the UFC for, world championship status. 

Standing in the undefeated fighter's way is his most dangerous test to date as he meets the streaking Tony Ferguson. With nine wins forcefully fueling the sails of his ship, Ferguson will seek to capitalize on his current momentum by capturing a belt in one of the organization's most competitive weight classes. 

In a matchup that has hardcores and technique nerds turned up to ten, I must admit that this is the fight that excites me the most. I also believe that this is a battle where each man possesses the skillset to be the other's on-paper kryptonite, depending on the viewpoint--of course, as I attempt to elaborate on mine. 

Starting off on the feet, I am sure that sensible supporters of either fighter can concede that the on-paper edges fall on the side of Ferguson. That said, there will be more than potent places for Nurmagomedov to capitalize on, whether it is him or his counterpart that is coming forward. 

In a battle of two pressure-fighters, an interesting dynamic when it comes to forecasting action is the question of "who will lead?" as this typically impacts the outcome. Though Ferguson's history will tell you that he will be the initial aggressor, it will be interesting to see his approach given the obvious takedown threat, especially if Nurmagomedov elects the "Demian Maia route" that should favor him on paper. 

Nevertheless, the Dagestani shares similar sensibilities to the American in regards to their welcoming of danger, as I would not be surprised to see Nurmagomedov's usual approach of feeling things out on the feet first. If the Sambo champ elects to stand and trade, Nurmagomedov may invite a swarm should he stagnate even in the slightest as Ferguson forces uncomfortable firefights like few can. 

An almost frantic forward mover, Tony Ferguson can seldom be found taking a back step in watching tape on his fights. Whether he is feinting or throwing, Ferguson consistently puts pressure on his opponents as he looks to half-step his way into kill shots. However, it is in these advances where Ferguson is most hittable as Nurmagomedov will also have his chances. 

As is the case with many fighters who are tall, Ferguson's natural posture makes his head more hittable on entry or retreat. Although Nurmagomedov is more apt to throw shovel hooks and uppercuts(as those are his most accurate punches), I will be curious to see if he changes things up to overhands given his opposition. Even though he is not known as a counter fighter, Nurmagomedov has shown us before that he can plant and return off of a backstep. 

That said, even clean shots carry little promise when it comes to Tony Ferguson as he lives up to the moniker of "El Cucuy" in the way that he absorbs punishment and haunts his opponent. Ridiculous chin aside, Ferguson does a deceptively good job of rolling with punches to come back with his own. Though it is certainly a risky proposition, it is one that Ferguson consistently gets positive returns on due to his persistence to stay poised and play the long game.

Speaking of the long-game, I see Ferguson leaning on his jab as that could be a key factor in this fight. Not only will the length of his jab be useful against the oncoming pocket engagements of Nurmagomedov, but the angle in which Ferguson throws it could be particularly effective against the Dagestani. 

Typically keeping his lead hand low, Ferguson's jab will come at a slightly upward angle which could find it's home against a shorter, shelling opponent. Though Nurmagomedov has steadily improved his defensive twitches, he still shows to revert to a shell variation when defending strikes. These tendencies could be costly against a striker like Ferguson, who throws from multiple angles and levels to boot. 

Where the rubber truly hits the road in this matchup, is whenever these two entangle in any of the grappling phases from standing to the floor. Despite the fact that I feel Ferguson's game is misunderstood by many, there is a clear path to victory via control for Nurmagomedov should he exercise his on-paper advantages. 

Whether it is his trips and tosses from the body-lock or his single-leg repertoire of high-crotches & pipe-running, Nurmagomedov can do it all. As a grappling enthusiast and student of the game, I am in near awe of Dagestani's ability to dominate opposition almost effortlessly. As is such, it can be very easy to miss the technical intricacies of the Sambo champ which are simple in nature, but beautifully executed as a whole. 

An expert when it comes to conducting grappling stanzas through the use of leg levers, rides and wrist feeds, I am not sure anyone would be surprised to see Nurmagomedov bank rounds through his suffocating style. However, the Dagestan native often does his best work from the body lock as this is the key to his control positions as well as his ability to parlay in his previously mentioned options. 

Considering that Ferguson is one of the most avid enthusiasts of the granby roll in any division, it will be interesting to see how these positions play out in regards to Nurmagomedov's takedown transitions versus Ferguson's creations of chaos. Although the body lock is a good control option in MMA, it still allows enough space for your opponent's hips to hit a granby roll if they know what they are doing, and Tony Ferguson does. 

In fact, we have seen Ferguson hit his granby rolls in mid-air against Josh Thomson as he reversed what seemed to be deep shots. If Tony is not taking a leg or a limb in his rolling efforts, the scramble usually makes for a space that forces the opposing fighter to chose between standing and re-wrestling. And though Nurmagomedov will rightfully be confident in re-wrestling for control, he will also be playing into his opposition's hand. 

Even if Nurmagomedov is not re-wrestling in for traditional shot attempts, I believe his propensity to grapple in general could lead him down a dangerous path when you consider that re-wrestling often involves the commitment of your head and upper body extremities. This broad observation becomes important when you consider that Ferguson is a near-master from the front-headlock as his finishing percentage from that position continues to grow. 

A flag waver for the snap down, Ferguson will create opportunities of his own to take the fight into his realm as we saw him seal Lando Vanatta's fate by catching him in a front headlock as he was rolling away from punches. Despite Ferguson doing well when snapping his opponents down (as this opens up back-take and choke transitions), it is the seeming abandonment of position that often leaves observers scratching their heads. With many pointing to Ferguson's fight with Danny Castillo as evidence that could come into play in this matchup, it can be hard to argue when you look at the sheer control time conceded by Ferguson. That said, that fight was nearly three years ago as Ferguson has made improvements to his process since. 

In looking back over his performances as a whole, you can see that Ferguson has been steadily working out a style that I like to refer to as "presenting." 

Like any good magician, the true magic happens when you can successfully stage an environment for your trick to work. This principle also plays in the poker arena as the final table at The World Series of Poker is often filled by the best presenters, and not necessarily the best poker players. 

Though Ferguson is, in my opinion, one of the best presenters we currently have in MMA, he certainly is not the first. Rickson Gracie, for example, would give us glimpses of presenting as early as the 1980's as he would use his principles of pace and breathing to stage environments in which he would thrive, as well as patience in bad spots that would allow him to close the show. 

The 1990's would give birth to a new genre of presenter as we would see heavyweights like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira use these principles to make their marks. A submission specialist who lacked the wrestling chops to get fights to the floor, Nogueira would purposefully shoot sloppy shots so that his opponent was forced to engage in grappling, allowing for the Brazilian to dive into his deep-half game. 

We would later see fighters like Demian Maia apply that same move to turn the tide on an oncoming Matt Brown in the UFC 198 barnburner. Embracing a more controlled version of presenting, Maia is amongst the best as he will classically threaten a head & arm choke only to open opportunities for his legs to pass into mount. 

I apologize if this feels like it digresses from the breakdown, but I assure you that understanding this principle is essential to understanding Tony Ferguson. 

What most people point to as his flaws are arguably the most poignant parts of his game. Whether he is presenting a target on his feet or a threat by way of submission, there is ultimately a larger objective at play for Ferguson. 

As we saw in his previously mentioned submission catch over Lando Vanatta, Ferguson used this same principle to put himself in a position to finish a choke that Vanatta knew was coming. Initially presenting the threat of a Guillotine choke, Ferguson forced Vanatta to defend and hand-fight, knowing it would inherently create enough space between the lats and triceps for his arm to slide through for a D'arce. 

Although Nurmagomedov is amongst the top of the food chain when it comes to grapplers with great grip and positional awareness, his confidence could betray him into a trap should he even lull for a moment in transit. 

Parlaying his grip and hip awareness, Nurmagomedov also does an excellent job of turtling out and standing to safety. However, he will need to be careful with a grappler like Ferguson. Though the American is not a renowned back-taker, Ferguson bears the frame and lever understanding to at the very least stifle Nurmagomedov should he underestimate his opponent. 

That said, the stifling advantage should fall into Nurmagomedov's court if he plays his cards right. However, if the Sambo champ fails to find a finish against the durable Ferguson, I could see the scales start to shift as Nurmagomedov's efforts may turn toward the land of diminishing returns. Despite both fighters beaming with confidence, they utilize it in very different ways. 

Similar to his fighting approach, Nurmagomedov's confidence is also like a runaway train in the sense that it is largely a one-way street. Though this has served him well thus far in hir career, it will be interesting to see what happens when it meets a confidence that is fueled by adversity. 

Psychological and physical profiles aside, I ultimately believe that this fight will hinge on Ferguson's ability to present versus Nurmagomedov's ability to ruin the illusion. 

In looking at this battle on paper, you can easily argue that this is the fight where Ferguson's ambitions could cost him crucial positions. And though Nurmagomedov's ground game can often resemble the bear attack in "The Revenant," like the movie, Ferguson will too have his chance to get the last word should he survive the initial storms.

Official Pick: Ferguson - Inside the distance

Summary: In a middleweight affair on the main card, Rashad Evans will face off with Daniel Kelly. 

A former title holder at light-heavyweight, Evans will make his long-awaited debut at 185 pounds. Now cleared of the medical issues that precluded his participation at UFC 205, Evans will look to right a two-fight skid and get his first win since 2013. Standing in the former champs way is a four-time Olympian by the name of Daniel Kelly. 

Despite the on-paper miles and visible disjointed nature of his walking-gate, Kelly has been able to upset the oddsmakers as he looks to take down his biggest-name to date. On paper, this is a fight that Rashad Evans should win as he is the justified favorite.  However, I feel that there is much more than meets the eye as I see this intangible-filled affair hinging on a few points. 

Starting off on the feet, Rashad Evans will possess the checkmarks of speed, power, and movement, which in theory, should allow the former champ to pick and choose his shots against the slower, more limited striker. 

Utilizing solid footwork and exaggerated feints, Evans will look to stifle his opposition while setting up his big right hand or reactive double-leg shot. Though the presence of a jab has often been vacant amongst Evans' arsenal, he does present an accurate left hook that the former champ often throws as a check. 

Nevertheless, Evans will have plenty of encouragement to dust off that tool for this fight as offering something down the center will be a must against a pressuring opponent like Kelly, who will unabashedly abuse the centerline.

Measuring with his jab(and sometimes using a Dutch hand-trap), Kelly will incorporate feints so that he can draw out his opponent's offense. From here, he will look to time his opposition with his patent left cross, a punch that Kelly variates nicely between over-the-top throws and down-the-center pushes. 

Aside from this strike being the most potent amongst the Australian's arsenal, I also believe Kelly's left cross may be the key-strike to look for in this matchup, especially considering that left hands have typically given Evans issues when looking at his past. From the left crosses of Lyoto Machida, the jabs from Ryan Bader, or the left hook of Glover Teixeira, left-hands have certainly been the common culprit of Evans' career on paper. Although Evans has always had solid head movement, he tends to lean and load heavily to his right side, especially after slipping to his left. Coupled with the fact that he counts a lot on his right hand for offense or extended parries, the former champ tends to be more vulnerable on that side as the over-delineation of duties can often cause for openings. 

Should Kelly's persistence pay off before running into too drastic of turbulence, the former Olympian's deceptively heavy-hands could shift this fights momentum as it will certainly test Evans' resolve and tell us a lot about his overall status(both mentally and physically). 

Despite the stats saying otherwise, I feel that Evan's will be the one who largely decides where this fight takes places in regards to takedown offense or defense. Even though Evans would stray from his wrestling as his career progressed, many forget just how good the former All-American was. 

Boasting (at one time) arguably one of the best transitional games in MMA, Evans would move smoothly off of strikes and into explosive level-changing shots as he drove through his opponents. Though less apt to apply these skills in recent years, the former champ still shows the defensive chops inside of the clinch that could keep him safe here. 

Demonstrating a solid awareness from his hips to the use of over and under-hooks, Evans will seldom over-commit himself as he has a good sense of when to circle out safely. Putting in extensive work with former Judo Olympian Rhadi Ferguson for this camp, Evans should be well-prepared for the repertoire of trips and throws from Kelly. 

That said, should Evans fail to put his stamp on this fight early, he could eventually succumb to Kelly's pressure in this region as the former Judoka will mix in some traditional takedowns as his ability to chain is deceivingly effective. Even upon failure, Kelly shows little signs of discouragement as he will quickly use the exchanges as excuses to strike off of the break. 

If Kelly finds success in getting Evans to the floor, it will be interesting to see if the Australian immediately opts for his transition-heavy approach given the get-up abilities of the former light-heavyweight champion. Couple that with the fact that Kelly is no picnic to hold in place either, and I see grappling stanzas being tactically exciting for as long as they should last. 

Despite initially coming into this fight leaning toward Evans as I see him being able to control every aspect on paper, there are too many intangibles attached to troubling patterns here for my liking. More specifically, I feel that the former champion's reliance on speed and timing have been a crucial point of diminishing returns that has been prevalent, in my opinion, for many years. 

Considering that the attributes mentioned above tend to go first in aging fighters, this could be a troubling trend for Evans, especially should he fail to find success early. Say what you will about Daniel Kelly and his labored walks to the cage, the man consistently comes to compete as I feel that he is of a similar ilk to Dan Henderson or Randy Couture in regards to mental toughness. 

Although Kelly's aggressiveness will leave him open to the counters that have typically plagued him in the past, Evans may be forced into an uncomfortable firefight should his counter shots fail to come to fruition. Furthermore, Evans propensity to play on the outside of the cage may cost him when you consider that is where Kelly does his best work, whether it be strikes or takedowns. 

No matter who you favor here, I suggest keeping your money away from this intangible-filled affair. Despite Evans looking nothing short of spectacular on recent social-media posts, we still have not seen how his body will perform at middleweight, much less with the caveat of having to go through multiple camps(ala his original opponent Tim Kennedy). 

With signature performances and championship form furthering itself in the rear-view mirror, this may be Evans last chance to start a new chapter as I have long wanted to see him at this weight class. But if Evans still shows trouble finding the gas pedal, then he may find himself losing this race on the scorecards.

Official Pick: Kelly - Decision

Summary: In a fun fight taking place in the lightweight division, "Groovy" Lando Vannata squares off with David Teymur. 

Just two fights into his UFC career, Lando Vannata has already marked himself as a standout amongst what is one of the deepest stables. Looking to take the next step in his journey, Vannata will look to deliver the goods against a deceptively dangerous opponent. 

Making his way from the Muay Thai circuits, David Teymur has amassed himself a solid start in MMA. Although he came up short during his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, Teymur's promise that he demonstrated on the show shined through in his official UFC fights as the Swede has starched his last two opponents. 

Starting off on the feet, we have all the ingredients for violence as both men are offensively inclined. Though Teymur has the on-paper edge in the striking department, I do not feel it will be by much judging by what we have seen from Vannata. 

One of the few, UFC level, Jackson-Wink fighters who was born and bred by Brandon Gibson, Vannata gives us glimpses of the new breed to come. Similar to his striking coach, Vannata too, has been one of the quiet storms brewing amongst the super camp. This hype would be justified when Vannata was the only fighter to step up on short notice last summer to face Tony Ferguson. 

Coming close to stopping the now-title challenger, Vannata displayed some solid skill-sets that could serve him well in this fight. Developing a devasting right hand toward the end of his regional run, the fast learner would pick up speed in sharpening his setups come his UFC Debut. 

An athletic-mover by nature, Vannata demonstrates a preternatural understanding in regards to the flow of combat and chaining of techniques. Whether he is parlaying a defensive sprawl into a hip-toss or freakishly granby rolling along the fence to escape a takedown, there is something special about Vannata.

In fact, it is in these moments of initial engagement where you can see the magic of Vannata's mid-motion adjustments occur. In regards to striking, Vannata will utilize variations of front kicks and teeps to set up stanzas on the feet.

  What makes Vannata's front kicks so different from the rest of his stablemates at Jackson-Wink MMA, is that he will use the reaction it creates to decide his next move as opposed to coming in with a typical preset combo. We saw this come to perfect fruition in his last fight as Vannata read his opponent's motion to his weak side in defense, and then subsequently blasted him with a spinning wheel kick. 

Vannata would hit similar setups against Tony Ferguson, as we saw him use the front-kick feint to land a spinning back fist that nearly closed the show. Coupling these in-the-moment reads are incredible speed changes that Vannata will also utilize in defensive efforts to quickly back-step when appropriate. 

Working diligently on his footwork and head movement, the improvements for Vannata have started to show in the last handful of fights. That said, his reliance on these skills have also grown as it could cost him against a seasoned striker like David Teymur. 

A legitimate Muay Thai striker with over 50 kickboxing bouts, Teymur has all the tools to score an upset from his technical acumen to potent knockout power. Despite being almost offensive to a fault in his Muay Thai career, Teymur has steadily sharpened his counter striking game since entering MMA. 

Maintaining a stronger consciousness of his distance, Teymur will typically circle just outside of range as he looks to lull the opposition into his style of trading. Working behind a variety of imposing kicks, the Swede keeps an accurate left-hand ready to counter, as we saw this in his last two fights. 

Against Martin Svensson, Teymur would beautifully intercept his fellow Swede with an uppercut as he looked to change levels. And considering the free-flowing nature that Vannata tends to roll/lower his level with, the uppercut, as well as Teymur's knees, may be worth watching for in this fight. 

Though I do not expect Vannata to go kick-for-kick with the former Thai fighter, he could be in for a rude awakening should he get lazy or predictable with his kick-feints. Since these kick engagements are not designed to knock people out, there is an inherent tendency to throw them slightly slower. 

Not only can this give way to the counter crosses that Teymur used to secure his last victory over Jason Novelli, but it can also allow for catch-kick counters, a defensive trigger that Vannata's opponent has deeply embedded. Where this competitive road begins to part for me, is when looking at the grappling prospects of this fight. Not only does Vannata have advantages in wrestling and ground transitions, but I also feel he may have an edge in the clinch as well.

Despite Muay Thai striking often translating to grappling faster than other styles due to the clinch wrestling involved with their sport, Teymur was not necessarily one to embrace the close quarter combat in reviewing his Muay Thai tape.

Though he has made efforts to develop his grappling since moving to MMA, Teymur's improvements have primarily been offensive ones as he mainly uses takedowns as attempts to score points near the end of rounds. Not only do I not see him having success in that department against Vannata, but I suspect that the former collegiate wrestler may remind the UFC audience of his base. 

Though he has not shown it thus far in his short UFC tenor, Vannata appears to have better wrestling chops than his resume suggests. More importantly, the Jackson-Wink product demonstrates a solid transition game as he floats positions intelligently. Should Vannata ground his foe, this could be a short night. 

However, if Vannata underestimates Teymur, then this could quickly turn into a much closer fight with an expensive price tag for prospects. Ultimately, I see Vannata's shown skills keeping him afloat on the feet as I believe he finds the finish on the floor after landing something that is likely stunning.

Official Pick: Vannata - Inside the distance

Summary: Kicking off the main card is a heavyweight showdown as Alistair Overeem and Mark "Super Samoan" Hunt meet once again. 

Coming up short in his bid for the heavyweight crown in September of last year, Alistair Overeem has taken some needed time off as he seeks to regain the momentum he had not long ago. 

Standing in his way is a super Samoan named Mark Hunt. With his last fight correlating with his current courtroom battles, Hunt will be looking to get some momentum going his way with a win here. 

Starting off on the feet, I feel that this fight may begin in a similar fashion to Overeem's fight with Junior Dos Santos. In facing a pressure-fighting boxer who holds a knockout threat, we saw Overeem play the outside edges in a safe manner, keeping his space and looking for his openings. 

If you have been watching Overeem since his days in Pride, then you will know that the Dutchman didn't always fight this way. 

Although the striking upgrades made during the K-1 chapter of his career helped him immensely, it wasn't until Overeem's run of UFC knockout losses that we saw him adjust his footwork and approach. 

Already dangerous off of his stance shifts, Overeem's confidence in his head movement and technique often allowed him to plot in front of his opponents longer than he needed to. However, after a series of camp changes during his run of losses, the Dutchman seemed to find a home at Jackson-Wink as he would embrace a slightly different method. 

Like many fighters who come from that camp, Overeem will now circle the outside comfortably as he looks to sharpshoot his attacks like a torpedo plane on a bombing run. 

With among the highest striking accuracy in the division, this style is optimal for Overeem as it also plays a huge role in protecting his chin from unnecessary roughness. And with all of his losses coming by way of knockout since 2005, the path for his Samoan counterpart becomes quite clear.

Favoring a more basic arsenal, Mark Hunt's ability to deceptively change speeds is what sets him apart from the pack. Striking at blatant, lackadaisical speeds, Hunt will bait opposition his way by lulling them into a false sense of security. After adjusting and achieving reads, Hunt will then explode into fight-ending counter shots. 

Whether he is rolling with his left hook or slipping into his right uppercut, Hunt works with an impressive economy of trunk movement as his style relies heavily upon it. Despite this style of defense working well for defending punches, it still tends to present a tasty target for Thai kicks. 

Although Hunt's durability often aides his counter striking sensibilities, leaning on his chin has been an increasingly troublesome path for the Super Samoan. Nevertheless, Hunt's counters should be potent for as long as this fight lasts as left-hooks off of the break will be the strike to watch for from him. 

Where things could get even more interesting is if this affair hits the floor. Given both fighter's sample size, I believe that Overeem will be the man with more motive to turn to grappling. Employing different variations of takedowns into his game plans in recent years, we may see the Dutchman reach into that well once again given his opponent's history. 

However, grounding Mark Hunt can be much more difficult than Brock Lesnar made it look. Carrying and underrated ability to defend takedowns, Mark Hunt's stout stature and deceptive agility often limit the entry options for his opponents. With some of Hunt's biggest grappling improvements being the way in which he uses the fence, the ideal approach is to get him grounded in the open. 

Displaying an understanding of fundamental wrestling defense, Hunt traditionally defends double-legs well as he wields deceptively quick hips. That said, single-legs have proven effective against the Samoan as these more aptly disrupt the balance of his stout base. 

With Overeem getting a bulk of his takedowns from the clinch, Hunt will have to stay urgent in these spaces as he will be within the grasp of a vast arsenal. 

More specifically, I am very curious to see how Hunt deals with Overeem's hand fighting inside the clinch. What makes a clinch striker so dangerous or a "ground & pounder" so good, ultimately comes down to their ability to grip fight(hence why most good ground & pounders make good clinch strikers and vice versa). 

Although Overeem has an uncanny ability for smelling openings inside the clinch, it is the grip game that Hunt will have to beat if means to find success in close. Should the Dutchman ground his opponent, the hand fighting will only become more crucial as Overeem has a knack for doing damage from topside. 

If Hunt cannot demonstrate the ability to stand early, then he may be in for some rough waters. But if the Samoan manages to create his typical scrambles, he will need to mind the traps involved. 

As Hunt has worked his wrestling in the later half of his career, we have seen him develop a taste for turtling to stand. Although many use this method to get up, turtling can often expose your back, or in the case of a heavyweight affair, give up a front headlock. 

Aside from maybe Ben Rothwell or Fabricio Werdum, Allistair Overeem is the worst heavyweight to give a front headlock to as he transitions smoothly to devastating ground strikes that sneakily set you up for his patent Guillotine chokes. Should Hunt avoid these traps, he will still need to be aware of the points being scored on him as well as the energy exerted. 

If this fight were one or two years ago, I would feel pretty good about Mark Hunt finding a counter KO shot. And though I may be secretly rooting for him to do well here, it is hard to be confident to know which Mark Hunt we are getting inside the Octagon with the looming battles he is facing on the outside of it.

Official Pick: Overeem - Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Tybura def. Henrqiue
• Bektic def. Elkins
• Alcantara def. Sanders
• Godbeer def. Spitz
• Craig def. Pedro
• Cooper def. Calvillo
• Morales def. Soukhamthath

For my complete works of past UFC breakdowns and analysis visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned to FloCombat.com